Throughout the existence of Bitcoin, we have seen many outrageous Bitcoin price predictions. Of course, at the beginning even $100 looked like an insane prediction. One of the most famous predictions was John McAfee’s $1 million bet that he posted on Twitter and talked about on many other channels.
At its peak, Bitcoin reached $20,000 on some exchanges with a total market capitalization of $332 billion. This is the most important metric for Bitcoin if we want to truly understand if $1 million is feasible. A $300 billion valuation or market capitalization is definitely big, but is it that big really?
Let’s take a look at the largest publicly traded companies in the world thanks to Dogsoftheshadow:
Apple is the clear winner with a whopping $1.9 trillion market cap, yes that’s in trillions. There are currently 4 companies that have more than a $1 trillion cap followed by Facebook at $764. Mastercard is currently at $328 billion, basically the peak of Bitcoin.
Clearly a single company can reach $1 trillion and basically $2 trillion. Let’s simply use the entire Bitcoin supply, ignoring lost coins. If we take 21 million Bitcoin, to reach a market cap of $1.9 trillion, Bitcoin price would need to hit $90,500
Now to get to $1 million per Bitcoin, we would need to have a $21 trillion market capitalization, which is 11 times higher than Apple or higher than the first 50 companies combined cap. Now that’s definitely a huge mcap.
Comparison of Bitcoin’s Market Capitalization to Worlds Total Money
If BTC price reaches $1 million, it’s market cap would be $21 trillion, we already know that. Now let’s take a look at this amazing metric put up by VisualCapital.
According to them, the total value of the world’s ‘easily accessible money’ is around $35 trillion and the total value of the world’s money is close to $100 trillion, which would be 5 times higher than Bitcoin’s mcap.
However, this doesn’t really mean anything, for instance, the total estimated value of the world’s real estate is around $280 trillion. Bitcoin price and market capitalization could reach $21 trillion even if the world’s total accessible money wasn’t higher than $21 trillion.
What Bitcoin Would Need to do or Become to Ever Reach $1 Million
We have seen that some things can definitely reach more than $21 trillion in total value, however, these few things are global and present almost everywhere. For instance, real estate is virtually everywhere, Bitcoin would need to do the same in some way.
Bitcoin would basically have to become a global digital currency used by hundreds of millions every day. The value of Bitcoin is not purely speculative but most of it does derive from it. There is also some intrinsic value thanks to miners and their costs but for the most part, we could say that Bitcoin price is determined by the market and speculation.
Unfortunately, Bitcoin seems to be taking a different path than intended and it’s not really becoming a global currency at all but rather a ‘safe haven’ or some sort of long-term investment tool. Considering this fact, Bitcoin would have a hard time reaching $21 trillion as the entire value of Gold is currently around $13 trillion. At the same time, even $13 trillion would be amazing and definitely feasible for Bitcoin in the future.