Kraken predicts Bitcoin will tank in September and return to its aggressive volatility status afterward
The US-based crypto exchange has speculated Bitcoin price will slip this month, based on its August 2020 volatility report. According to the exchange, Bitcoin will crash in September and post negative returns.
The Kraken report points out that September has been Bitcoin’s worst-performing month in history with the coin averaging -7% returns. It also adds that even though Bitcoin’s returns in most months this year have been lower than its average returns, it is likely to post worse returns this month.
Beyond this bearish horizon, the report envisages some hope in the coin’s performance. For instance, the record share of BTC hasn’t changed in more than a year. The crypto exchange asserts that such a dynamic trend points to a bull market.
Kraken pictures aggressive fluctuations in Bitcoin afterward. “12 times in the past, Bitcoin’s annualized volatility bottomed between 15% and 30% before climbing, on average, to 140% and returning +196% over 94 days. As of the end of August, 38 days have passed since the volatility low of 23% set on July 24, with volatility rising to 44% and price gaining +25%”.
This indicates there is still space for gains in the coming months based on similar historical events. According to the report, September has often had the average weakest volatility, hinting that the coin would probably not record accelerated volatility until the fourth quarter of the year.
Still, it is important to keep in mind that this prediction isn’t necessarily how the future will turn out. The recent movements of Bitcoin give the impression that the crypto coin is drifting away from the catalytic pattern of the market.
A case in point is when the coin recorded high correlation with the S&P stock market index for the larger part of last month. After achieving a local top of 0.84, correlation collapsed to -0.02.
The post Bitcoin will likely see a price decline in September 2020: Kraken appeared first on Coin Journal.